SPX Iron Condor - High Loss Threshold - 80 DTE

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 80 days-to-expiration (DTE).  The results in this post were derived from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester.

For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the nomenclature used in the charts and tables below, please see the introductory article for this series: Iron Condor Series - Higher Loss Thresholds

In the trade metrics tables, I have highlighted some of the metrics rows to indicate values that are in the upper half of the readings.  One of the metrics to note is the average P&L per day in percentage terms (Trade Details (%) - Avg. P&L / Day).  This is a measure of the P&L per day normalized to the maximum margin required for that trade run...it tells us the effectiveness of theta with respect to our margin requirement.

8 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 80 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 80 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 80 DTE, 8 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 300%:50%, and 300%:75%.


12 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 80 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 80 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 80 DTE, 12 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 200%:50%, and 200%:75%.


16 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 80 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 80 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 80 DTE, 16 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 300%:50%, and 400%:50%.


20 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 80 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 80 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 80 DTE, 20 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 300%:50%, and 400%:50%.

With the 80 DTE tests, the highest average P&L per day readings occurred with the 8 delta short strike variations.  In the next post I will summarize the results from the last four blog posts.


If you don't want to miss my new blog posts, follow my blog either by email, RSS feed or by Twitter.  All options are free, and are available on the top of the right hand navigation column under the headings "Subscribe To RSS Feed", "Follow By Email", and "Twitter".  I follow blogs by RSS using Feedly, but any RSS reader will work.

SPX Iron Condor - High Loss Threshold - 66 DTE

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 66 days-to-expiration (DTE).  The results in this post were derived from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester.

For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the nomenclature used in the charts and tables below, please see the introductory article for this series: Iron Condor Series - Higher Loss Thresholds

In the trade metrics tables, I have highlighted some of the metrics rows to indicate values that are in the upper half of the readings.  One of the metrics to note is the average P&L per day in percentage terms (Trade Details (%) - Avg. P&L / Day).  This is a measure of the P&L per day normalized to the maximum margin required for that trade run...it tells us the effectiveness of theta with respect to our margin requirement.

8 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 66 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 66 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)

For the 66 DTE, 8 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: 200%:75%, and 300%:75%.


12 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 66 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 66 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 66 DTE, 12 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 100%:50%, and 200%:50%.


16 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 66 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 66 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 66 DTE, 16 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:NA%, NA%:50%, and 100%:50%.


20 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 66 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 66 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 66 DTE, 20 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:NA%, and 100%:50%.

With the 66 DTE tests, the highest average P&L per day readings occurred with the 8 delta short strike variations.  In the next post we will look at these same deltas and exits, but on the SPX 80 DTE iron condor.


If you don't want to miss my new blog posts, follow my blog either by email, RSS feed or by Twitter.  All options are free, and are available on the top of the right hand navigation column under the headings "Subscribe To RSS Feed", "Follow By Email", and "Twitter".  I follow blogs by RSS using Feedly, but any RSS reader will work.

SPX Iron Condor - High Loss Threshold - 52 DTE

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 52 days-to-expiration (DTE).  The results in this post were derived from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester.

For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the nomenclature used in the charts and tables below, please see the introductory article for this series: Iron Condor Series - Higher Loss Thresholds

In the trade metrics tables, I have highlighted some of the metrics rows to indicate values that are in the upper half of the readings.  One of the metrics to note is the average P&L per day in percentage terms (Trade Details (%) - Avg. P&L / Day).  This is a measure of the P&L per day normalized to the maximum margin required for that trade run...it tells us the effectiveness of theta with respect to our margin requirement.

8 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 52 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 52 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 52 DTE, 8 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: 100%:50%, and 400%:50%.


12 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 52 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 52 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 52 DTE, 12 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 300%:75%, and 400%:50%.


16 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 52 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 52 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 52 DTE, 16 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 300%:50%, and 400%:50%.  Note: NA%:50% and 400%:50% have identical equity curves in the chart above.


20 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 52 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 52 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 52 DTE, 20 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, and 400%:50%.

With the 52 DTE tests, the highest average P&L per day readings occurred with the 12 delta short strike variations.  In the next post we will look at these same deltas and exits, but on the SPX 66 DTE iron condor.


If you don't want to miss my new blog posts, follow my blog either by email, RSS feed or by Twitter.  All options are free, and are available on the top of the right hand navigation column under the headings "Subscribe To RSS Feed", "Follow By Email", and "Twitter".  I follow blogs by RSS using Feedly, but any RSS reader will work.

SPX Iron Condor - High Loss Threshold - 38 DTE

This is the first article in a series where we will look at the performance of the iron condor options strategy, where the loss exits will be greater than the profit exits.  For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the nomenclature used in the charts and tables below, please see the introductory article for this series: Iron Condor Series - Higher Loss Thresholds

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 38 days-to-expiration (DTE).  The results displayed below represent data from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester.  The results are separated by the delta of the short strikes.

In the trade metrics tables, I have highlighted some of the metrics rows to indicate values that are in the upper half of the readings.  One of the metrics to note is the average P&L per day in percentage terms (Trade Details (%) - Avg. P&L / Day).  This is a measure of the P&L per day normalized to the maximum margin required for that trade run...it tells us the effectiveness of theta with respect to our margin requirement.

8 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 38 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 38 DTE 8 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 38 DTE, 8 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: 100%:50%, 200%:50%, 200%:75% and 300%:75%.


12 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 38 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 38 DTE 12 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 38 DTE, 12 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: 200%:50% and 200%:75%.


16 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 38 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 38 DTE 16 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 38 DTE, 16 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:NA%, 200%:75%, and 300%:75%.


20 Delta Short Strikes
Iron Condor Equity Curves SPX 38 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
Iron Condor Trade Metrics SPX 38 DTE 20 Delta Risk:Reward Exits
(click to enlarge)
For the 38 DTE, 20 delta SPX iron condors, the top exit approaches indicated by the metrics were: NA%:50%, 100%:50%, 300%:50% and 400%:50%.

In the next post we will look at these same deltas and exits, but on the SPX 52 DTE iron condor.


If you don't want to miss my new blog posts, follow my blog either by email, RSS feed or by Twitter.  All options are free, and are available on the top of the right hand navigation column under the headings "Subscribe To RSS Feed", "Follow By Email", and "Twitter".  I follow blogs by RSS using Feedly, but any RSS reader will work.

Iron Condor Series - Higher Loss Thresholds

During my series on dynamic exits of iron condors, I received several requests for an expansion of these backtests.  Specifically, people asked if I could run the tests with larger loss thresholds.  I thought this was a good idea.  I've decided to postpone the series on the Strangle options strategy, and instead spend the next five or six weeks looking at iron condors with higher loss thresholds.

For this new series, we will look the following:

(click to enlarge)

As with the prior series, these iron condors will be entered at four different days-to-expiration (DTE): 38 , 52 , 66 , and 80.  For each of these DTE, we will test iron condors with short strikes at four different delta: 8, 12, 16, and 20.

The core of this series is related to the exits.  The following 8 exits will be tested:
  1. STD - NA%:NA% - exit at 8 DTE.
  2. STD - NA%:50% - exit if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  3. STD - 100%:50% - exit if the trade has a loss of 100% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  4. STD - 200%:50% - exit if the trade has a loss of 200% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  5. STD - 200%:75% - exit if the trade has a loss of 200% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 75% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  6. STD - 300%:50% - exit if the trade has a loss of 300% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  7. STD - 300%:75% - exit if the trade has a loss of 300% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 75% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
  8. STD - 400%:50% - exit if the trade has a loss of 400% of its initial credit OR if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE.
To clarify how these exits function, let's look at an example of the STD-200%:50% variation.  If we sell a 1-lot iron condor for $200, we would take our loss when the condor had to be bought back at $600.  $600 - $200 = $400, or a loss of 200% or our initial credit.  For this example, our profit taking would occur when we could buy back the iron condor for $100.  $200 - $100 = $100, or 50% or our initial credit.  

These exits can also be thought of as risk:reward exits.  Using the prior example of the STD-200%:50%, we are risking 200% to make 50%.  These odds don't sound great from a classical stock strategy approach, but the win rate and probabilities of exit are key components of options strategy profitability.


If you don't want to miss my new blog posts, follow my blog either by email, RSS feed or by Twitter.  All options are free, and are available on the top of the right hand navigation column under the headings "Subscribe To RSS Feed", "Follow By Email", and "Twitter".  I follow blogs by RSS using Feedly, but any RSS reader will work.

Tutorial Menggunakan SSH + Open VPN

Bagi pengguna Open Vpn + Inject yang tidak konek jangan dulu berkecil hati karena Kali ini saya akan memberikan atau share cara menggunakan atau konekan SSH + Open VPN, tutorial ini saya buat dan work sejak tanggal 15 Mei 2015 .Jika suatu saat inject mati atau tidak work maka saya akan segera update inject atau trik terbaru di blog ini atau tutorial ini.

Adapun tutorial adalah sebagai berikut :
1. Konekan SSH terlebih dahulu . Bagi yang belum tau silahkan belajar Disini
2. Setelah konek exit proxifier. Caranya klik kanan di gambar yang saya lingkasi ---> exit --->YES
3. Setelah itu atur proxy setting di SSL VPN (Secure Point Open Vpn) seperti gambar di bawah (Klik Gambar untuk memperjelas). Bagi yang masih bingung kenapa langsung proxy setting belajar dulu Disini
4. Klik Save ---> Connect ---> Masukan User name & Password 
5. Finish. Nanti hasilnya berwana hijau seperti ini

Bagi yang belum punya akun saya menyediakan akun ssh & open vpn sg.gs dengan harga seperti di bawah.
Ready akun sg.gs :
  1. 1 akun 10 ribu via pulsa
  2. 1 akun 9 ribu via rek
  3. 6 akun 50 ribu via rek
  4. 10 akun 80 ribu via rek
Yang mau order silahkan inbox fb:
Jin Kazama : Disini
Grup SSH RESELLER : Disni

Tutorial Membuat Akun SSH/Open Vpn Di Webmin

1. Ikuti Persis seperti gambar
2. Untuk kode d Real name silahkan inbox sy Disini
3. Ikuti seperti gambar

Bagi yang belum punya akun saya menyediakan akun ssh & open vpn sg.gs dengan harga seperti di bawah.
Ready akun sg.gs :
  1. 1 akun 10 ribu via pulsa
  2. 1 akun 9 ribu via rek
  3. 6 akun 50 ribu via rek
  4. 10 akun 80 ribu via rek
Yang mau order silahkan inbox fb:
Jin Kazama : Disini
Grup SSH RESELLER : Disni

Tutorial Menggunakan Open Vpn Di Android + Eproxy (Inject)

1. Download Open Vpn For Android Disini atau Download langsung di Play Store Lalu install sampai selesai.
2. Download eProxy_1.8.7.apk Disini Lalu instal sampai selesai.
3. Pilih icon 3 kotak yang di lingkari warna merah seperti gambar di bawah agar nantinya bisa menimport config eproxynya (seperti mengimport config open vpn) agar Proxy dan Listen Port terisi.


4. Pilih File untuk memasukan config e proxy.



 5. Pilih Open Config


6. Pilih config eproxy sesuai config open vpn tp sebelumnya config eproxy harus di pindahkan dulu ke folder eproxy. Biasanya kesalahan banyak disini karena belum memindahkan Config Eproxy ke Folder Eproxy (biasanya letaknya di SD Card/Eproxy). Jika belum punya confignya silahkan inbox FB ane Disini


7. Disini tidak perlu ada yang di ganti


8.  Klik Start nanti hasilnya seperti gambar ini, dan settingan untuk eproxy selesai, selanjutnya tinggal mengatur di Open Vpn For Android.


9.  Setelah Open Vpn For Android terinstal, maka buka Open Vpn For Android lalu pilih Icon Berkas untuk memasukan config open vpn, biasanya inilah yang di beli beserta username dan passwordnya.

10.Pilih Config Open Vpn yang sesuai dengan yang telah dibeli, biasanya tersimpan di folder Download kalau kita langsung mendownloadnya lewat HP Android. Jika belum punya confignya silahkan inbox FB ane Disini


11.  Pilih Gambar Icon Save


12.  Klik Config yang sudah di masukan td


13. Centang kotak Saya mempercayai aplikasi ini Lalu Oke


14. Masukan Username dan Paswoord

15. Beginilah hasilnya kalau sudah konek :D


Jika dirasa sering diskonek maka anda harus jangan centang  Gunakan rute standar 
Caranya seperti gambar di bawah.

Bagi yang belum punya akun saya menyediakan akun ssh & open vpn sg.gs dengan harga seperti di 
bawah.
Ready akun sg.gs :
  1. 1 akun 10 ribu via pulsa
  2. 1 akun 9 ribu via rek
  3. 6 akun 50 ribu via rek
  4. 10 akun 80 ribu via rek
Yang mau order silahkan inbox fb:
Jin Kazama : Disini
Grup SSH RESELLER : Disni